If there was ever a year for him to make the playoffs and do some serious damage, it’s 2020. That's unfair. He hit 29 of his 49 homers on the road, and slugged .733 away from home. A year after that he hit 26 homers and stole 24 bases at Double-A, as the youngest regular in the league. Cobb was great at 28 and ended up at 78.4 WAR. But, in one of the many, many downstream examples of this year's weirdness, Mike Trout is unlikely to challenge for the league's WAR lead. I mean, it was just cool to watch the way he hit those long home runs out onto Waveland Avenue. Starting next year, he’d need 30 home runs every season for a decade just to reach the 600-club. Nowadays, a late bloomer is unlikely to ever catch up to the amount of development the typical 22-year-old prospect has been through. Trout has been worth six WAR more than Thome -- about a third of Dave Kingman's career value -- with his baserunning alone. The 2020 MLB season may have an enormous impact on Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout’s legacy. 2. Instead, it is remembered with a melancholic longing for what could have been. Naturally, there’s a price for baseball’s return, and it comes in the form of a break from the status quo. 25? It doesn’t stop there, though. But people are individuals, not stereotypes. What I found most interesting in Justice’s American League MVP survey was the alignment of the four players behind Trout. We'll never pass along your email address to spammers, scammers, or the like. Growing up in Canada, he was primarily a hockey goalie and played "10 baseball games a year. The formula is even questionable when it comes to grading Trout himself, which you can determine for yourself — after taking a look at what triggered this latest rant. Mike Trout (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images). Thome's career OPS+ was 147. MLB standings ». Those might be the most damning WAR numbers ever, suggesting his defensive deficiencies are more than equal to his net worth. "Most talented player I've ever had," his manager Don Baylor said later. For one thing, hitting dingers and drawing walks are two dimensions, and Thome (who led the league in the latter statistic three times) excelled at both. There’s nothing not to like about the situation that he’s in. 2. For decades, fans have reflected on the careers of Hall of Famers such as Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio, wondering how much greater their already-sterling resumes could have been had they not nobly sacrificed three years each to serve in World War II. Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com. Richard Justice, a very qualified columnist for MLB.com (and a good friend) recently did one of those early MVP surveys that tend to show up about midseason every year. If Trout were to accumulate his current career rWAR total of 72.8 from the start of this season to the end of his age-40 campaign (13 seasons), he’d finish his career with 145.6, putting him just 4.4 wins shy of joining Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, and Ty Cobb as the only position players to ever accumulate 150 or more rWAR. 3. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. It's not that it was easy to be a major league star in 1894. He played first base, the least demanding position on the diamond, and made four errors. But as the shortened season giveth, so too does it taketh away. And years from now, when the sun has set on the career of this generation’s greatest player, it may be hard not to wonder what Mike Trout could have accomplished had he only been able to play those extra 102 games. For instance, Bundy’s 2.1 rating is lower than the 2.5 rating he posted last year for the Orioles, who finished with a 54-108, .333 record — but were only 9-21, .300 in the 30 games started by Bundy. As a Rockie, he had a five-year run where he hit .357/.445/.658, which is about what Ted Williams hit in the middle of his career. WAR (wins above replacement) has become the go-to standard and, at least from this point of view, it’s not an improvement. From 1995 to 2003, Walker had the third-best OPS in baseball, and that's where the controversy about his career really kicked in. At this point in this series, when Trout is passing true all-timers, the leaderboards do most of the work for us. 'I didn't really hit home runs back then. He goes from first to third better than anyone in baseball because he has thought about it before the ball is hit. When Mike Trout reported to spring training in mid-February 2020, he was 28 years old and had more career WAR through the age of 27 than any player in Major League Baseball history. But it still really helps to have these reminders of what people thought when they were actually seeing it. Kingman struck out and he homered. The Los Angeles Angels outfielder has a complicated reputation among baseball fans. But that 1997 season might have been what most persuasively made his case. The divisions have been decided, the schedules have been … More bio, uniform, draft, salary info (Trout's career OPS+ is 176; Thome had one full season better than that.) Trout needs to somehow amass 5.7 WAR in 60 games to top Cobb. In other words, WAR doesn’t equal MVP. But Walker's greatness was, in fact, more about his all-around abilities (defense, baserunning and offense) than his truly being Ted Williams at the plate. Per FanGraphs, the Angels would have had just an 18.3% chance of reaching the playoffs in a 162-game season. 1. The anatomy of a 3-0 comeback, MLB Friday Takeaways: Astros make history in forcing Game 7; Dodgers stay alive, How MLB old school beat new: Inside the Astros' big inning that won Game 6, Ranking 35 trades that shaped the Rays, Astros, Dodgers and Braves, Baseball keeps losing legends in 2020, and Joe Morgan might have been the smallest and mightiest of them all, 2021 MLB draft order set by 2020 standings, How the Rays are winning big without spending big money, MLB offseason preview: What's next for teams already out of the playoffs, Mike Trout tracker, Derek Jeter edition: He's now better than The Captain, MLB Power Rankings: Where all 30 teams stand coming out of trade deadline, Winners and losers from surprisingly active MLB trade deadline, Delmon Young was conveniently placed in the on-deck circle for Thome's 490-foot homer. 'That's a hitter. But that year, he was even better on the road. There may also be some consolation in the fact those four players combined had 17 first-place votes, with Bieber leading the way with 11. In the very early days of professional baseball, this sort of thing happened. In the interest of full disclosure, let’s get this out of the way early — Mike Trout, by just about everybody’s account, is the best baseball player on the planet. He's unlikely to finish near the top of MVP voting. Between his walk rate and his respectable batting averages, Thome was actually a fairly well-rounded hitter. If there is a rational explanation here, I missed it. However, the 2020 season presents a unique opportunity Trout to silence his doubters. WAR accumulation stands out as one of the most obvious areas where he’ll be hit the hardest. It's obvious to other players and people who watch the game that he is always thinking ahead. Keith Law. For the sake of brevity, I’m going to stick to results from the American League, conducted from a poll of 30 writers who were asked to list their top five choices, with a 5-4-3-2-1 rating system. All three of those teams are in contention to win the division, and all four of those players would be better MVP choices, IMHO. Alas, thus far he hasn't quite played like his normal self -- or, at least, WAR hasn't reflected it. 2017 – 2018 Rave Reviews; 2015 – 2016 Rave Reviews; 2013 – … These are not just 102 games that Trout randomly missed throughout his career due to injury or fatigue. That could be caused by any number of small-sample flukes, and the Angels have dismissed the metrics. So did Rogers Hornsby and Ernie Banks, and until his PED-fueled third act, Barry Bonds' best season had come at 28. Some of the pitchers he'd see in recreational leagues would spin the ball a little, but nobody could really throw a good breaking ball or at high velocity. He may not have a Gold Glove, and maybe he never will, but that’s a speck on an elephant’s behind compared to what he brings to the table. • More WAR through age 21 than any player in history (0:51). That's pushing it, even for Trout. Well, it didn’t shock me — but it was kind of infuriating when there is a very strong case that Trout isn’t even the MVP of his own team, the Los Angeles Angels, the perennial under-achieving team of the American League. It’s worth noting that this problem of lost time is nothing new to the baseball world. Through the weekend, Trout was hitting .277/.369/.622, an OPS that exactly matches his 2015 and 2016 seasons. Thome's best season, by WAR, would be Trout's eighth best. Click here to sign up for PressBox’s free weekly email newsletter. Tom Verducci, making Walker's case for MVP that fall, wrote: "Twenty years from now baseball archaeologists should not sift through the Baseball Encyclopedia, come upon these Jurassic numbers -- .366, 49 homers and 130 RBIs -- and have to wail, 'He didn't win the MVP?'". Photo Gallery | 2011 – 2020. As it stands, Trout needs 15 home runs to reach 300, something he could certainly accomplish this year. • More WAR through age 22 than any player in history But never have I suggested his defensive ability was a determining factor. Thome is as associated with his geographical upbringing as any player in baseball. Trout is already squarely in the passing-Hall-of-Famers-in-career-WAR-every-few-days period of his career, and another Trout-like season could topple as many as 17 Hall of Famers. And the defensive value of a center fielder (and a good one) dwarfs the defensive value of a first baseman (and a relatively poor one). He’s led the league in OPS+ four years running, and he now has a superstar teammate to lighten the offensive load in Anthony Rendon. He did win it. Since 1961, there are 77 hitters who have slugged at least 350 home runs. He probably was. When Trout passed 19th-century star Fred Clarke in career WAR, we noted that Clarke "made the majors about five years after he started playing the game." 'Watch Billy Buck,' Chuck would tell his youngest son when they made the trip to Wrigley Field. A decade later, those who know best detail how it happened. His hero was Dave Kingman, a famous jerk and the opposite of Buckner in every way. He's a prototype of his era, the early Moneyball era: a big, slugging power hitter who would draw a ton of walks, see a ton of pitchers, mash a ton of dingers and bury the bunt-and-run tendencies of the previous era. The time they spent away from the game is never forgotten. But Thome was also a rarity for his type, because he could also hit for average, despite the copious strikeouts that came from his hitting approach. His high school didn't have a team. Sam Miller ». With only 60 games on the schedule and 16 teams headed to the playoffs, the races are intense. Of course, COVID-19 didn't care. By offensive WAR, his bat was a little more valuable than those of Adam Dunn, Jay Bruce and Pat Burrell combined. ", How it's plausible Trout is, indeed, already better: Larry Walker deserves every Hall of Fame vote he got, and every MVP vote he got, and if anything the distortive powers of Coors Field cost him credit. The 2020 MLB season may have an enormous impact on Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout’s legacy. It’s just that when it comes to MVP awards he tends to be overrated. While it’s unreasonable to assume that Trout, who plays an average of 145 games per season, would have played all 102 games, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to say that he could have played roughly 90 games. Babe Ruth had his best season at 28. Throughout his career, profiles of Thome played up what might be considered his extreme Midwesternness -- which is to say, how nice and unglamorous he was. To really appreciate Trout, it helps to appreciate just how incredible were the Hall of Famers he is passing and to understand how it is plausible that Trout is already actually more valuable than they were. And it’s this shortened season that presents itself as a double-edged sword for baseball’s biggest star: Mike Trout. So that's where he started.
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