In the same way, if your VBD ranking shows Thomas as the number 8 overall player and ADP shows he's being drafted at number 5 overall, that means you're likely not going to be drafting Michael Thomas this year. If you have three quarterbacks on your roster, you likely aren't going to keep drafting quarterbacks if you can only start one each week regardless of whether there is a player available that has a very high value on your list. This is another area where my partner David Dodds has done cool work. What exactly does this mean? Another option is to use the average starter. Project these numbers for every player that you expect to be drafted, not just starters. This isn't really how we've projected these players): The X number tells you how that player stacks up against the other players at his position. Same thing for our world-beating Draft Dominator Mobile App. Let's just say we're flattered. As the draft develops, you need to be aware of the differences between absolute need and relative need. The goal is to squeeze value with every single pick. If you have three quarterbacks on your roster, you likely aren't going to keep drafting quarterbacks if you can only start one each week regardless of whether there is a player available that has a very high value on your list. My Footballguys partner David Dodds has done outstanding work in this area and he's found that the best baseline is based on the number of players that will be taken at a given point in a draft. You're comparing Jacobs to DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. You can create whatever crazy scoring system you want and it won't matter. We encourage you to dig in and wrestle with these steps. Now you're down by 3. 1 draft pick. Once you understand the concepts behind the Value-Based Draft system, you'll be well on your way to dominating your draft which is the easiest way to dominate your league. Simply compare the fantasy points each player will score to the corresponding baseline player. When you think about it, this is something you're probably already doing at some level already. This isn't really how we've projected these players): The X number tells you how that player stacks up against the other players at his position. If you only remember three things, make it these three: Think about these principles. Your wide receiver outscores his wide receiver 20 to 5 (+15 points). All players above him will have a positive X number based on the difference in fantasy points of that player and the baseline player. In this case, those numbers are the same number so you get 150 (baseline) - 150 (Jones' fantasy points) = an X number of 0. On the other hand, someone like Alvin Kamara has few peers. What you're looking for in the baseline is a player (or number) that you'll compare all the players at that position against. After 15 years, we've settled on using 100 players for most leagues. Because this is where it started. It tells you how about the peer pressure each player sees. You win the matchup 84 to 71. Multiplying this need factor by the X number will yield the relative X value for that player for your fantasy team. To determine the need factor of a position at any time in the draft, use the following table: So as an example, if you have a quarterback already and you start only one, then the need factor is 0.8 for your next quarterback. Matthew Berry of ESPN says, "Footballguys is the best premium fantasy football only site on the planet." And that is done by keeping a pulse on what an average draft is likely to do. And you do that by selecting players who outscore their peers, not necessarily the players who score a ton of points as you fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. And there you have it. Remember the 8-player draft example where you can't lose after drafting the 20-point wide receiver. Don't worry if you don't feel up to making your own stat projections, we'll provide everything you need at Footballguys.com. Rank each player BY POSITION from highest to lowest number of projected fantasy points. I'm not sure exactly when the VBD hit the Fantasy Football scene but it has been around for almost a decade. Our team, consisting of a specified number of players from the specified positions will compete against the other teams consisting of the same number of players from the same positions. Your need for a quarterback is different when you have three already on your roster. So what we need is a way to measure each player against his peers. This is where the economic concept of scarcity comes into play. Those things we know. But that's not how it works. What EXACTLY do you use to rank your players? It just means that later in the draft, you'll likely draft from your positional lists and not from your overall list. Let's say you and the owner above are going to throw all eight players back into the pool, have a draft, fill your four-man roster and play that one game over again using the same stats they posted. Remember the goal is to distance yourself from the competition. If you start two running backs and you have taken two running backs with your first three picks, it stands to reason that your immediate need is likely not at running back. Ever. You're comparing Jacobs to DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes II. Here's the guiding principle of Value-Based Drafting: The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Because this is where it started. A key point is to understand what the list is telling you. Using those detailed stat projections to assign a value to each player. Each one of these steps could easily merit its own article but for now, here's the summary version for each step. The reason most kickers are drafted late is they have low value. The hardest part is the first part. Look at last year's draft and count the positions. Where this especially comes into play is with unique scoring rules. Now you'll know. As stated, we do that by measuring how much better or worse we expect that player to perform when measured against the baseline player at his position. In fact, unconventional scoring systems will play to your advantage using my VBD system as you'll have an advantage over an owner that's playing by the conventional wisdom while you'll be working from reality. Handcuffing the backup to a key player on your roster, Looking for favorable matchups for certain tough weeks. Hop on board and let's crush this season. He will be our baseline, and we project Jones will score 150 fantasy points. We personally use 100 players as this basis, but you can play around with other points if you like. It's called Value-Based Drafting or VBD. For the sake of argument, these are the only eight players available to draft (two quarterbacks, two running backs, two wide receivers, and two kickers ) and you already know they're going to post the points I've stated from this one game. This simply isn't true. You'll most likely find that your kickers all have fairly low X numbers and are usually bunched tightly. I introduced VBD to the fantasy football world back in 1996 when players like Keyshawn Johnson, Eddie George, and Marvin Harrison had yet to play an NFL down. ... Every year is different in fantasy football… You're up 2. Breaking down the cornerstone drafting strategy of the Footballguys.com. The next step is determining your baseline. The point differences at each position, when totaled, will determine the winner. There's a lot to this. This is where peer pressure comes into play. With my VBD system, you'll be able to finally place tangible values on these players that make sense to you. If this seems like a lot of work (and it is) we will do all of the work for you at Footballguys.com with our VBD Excel Application and our Draft Dominator software. Now you're down by 3. Do not keep reading until this is crystal clear to you. With a Footballguys Season Long Pro Game Plan Footballguys Game Plan subscription customized just for you, you’ll make winning decisions, save time, and crush your competition.
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