... We've Located Matt Cain! to pass Juan Marichal, but you can see where he got the nickname “The Horse.” He was so danged consistent and reliable for years. Stop stealing our stuff and ripping off our features, please. At this point the pitchers’ records are beginning to look a little more equal, and it seems poor luck is the only culprit. Matt Cain was on my fantasy team that year, and let’s just say that Joe Morgan was probably condemning him to pitchers’ purgatory for his 7-16 record and “inability to pitch in the clutch situations.” I am of the school of thought that clutch performance in baseball is largely a myth, so I set out to determine where Matt Cain’s luck faltered, and perhaps why. Cain’s counterparts averaged a collective 4.39 ERA on the season (as of 9/24/07) while Lowry’s averaged 4.56. In these games, Cain had a 3-10 record (with 9 no-decisions) versus a 5-5 record (4 ND) for Lowry. So possibly Cain was the victim of unlucky “Bonds-timing.” Bonds got to the plate at least 3 times in just 21 of Cain’s 32 starts, or roughly two-thirds. I define a “fluke start” as an outing where an opposing pitcher with a season ERA over 5.00 allows 2 runs or less in an outing of 5 or more innings stealing a potential “easy win” from either pitcher in question. It was a different game. The difference in wins is easily covered by the blown saves discussed above, but it’s hard to ignore the disparity in “close losses.” So many close losses and no-decisions for Cain indicate that some timely runs could have significantly improved his record much more so than Lowry’s record. In an attempt to find a reason for this inconsistency, other than randomness and spontaneity, I delved further into the Giants’ and Cain’s statistics. On the other hand, Bonds stepped into the batter’s box 3 or more times in 20 of Lowry’s 26 starts, good for just under 80% of his outings. The San Francisco Giants have been around for 59 years. In reviewing these masses of stats, one can argue that unfortunate pitching matchups, a bullpen with a Cain-grudge, and untimely Giants hitting had something to do with Cain’s sub-par record and his team’s lack of offensive production. The NL leader in wins this season would be Matt Cain, of course…among a few others. Whitepages people search is the most trusted directory. Readjusting his record once again (always relative to Lowry’s stats, assuring “fair treatment”), Cain would then have a 15-10 record. This is not as big a difference as I had hoped, but might account for a couple close wins in Lowry’s favor, or conversely a couple close losses or no decisions for Cain.”. But they did. To get the full benefits of numberFire, please sign up. If you think the last five seasons have been rough for you, imagine what it was like for Cain, who had never failed or been injured at any level of baseball in his 28 years of life, and then suddenly couldn’t succeed or stay healthy. Matt Cain’s career with the Giants, by the numbers. Free shipping on many items | Browse your favorite brands | affordable prices. Why is Cain’s record so bad? Note that I’m using San Francisco Giants because the turn-of-the-century stats annoy me. Discover the real story, facts, and details of Matt Cain. This would show how many times each pitcher took a loss partly because of badly-timed run support. Eight straight seasons with 30 starts or more was a beautiful thing. Intuitively, Lowry got more run support, and therefore he had a better record. Finally I examined the two pitcher’s records in games where the final score was within 2 runs. Matt Cain was, as mentioned above, paradoxically 7-16 in 32 starts in 2007 with an impressive runs against per 9 innings of 3.78 (this includes unearned runs as well, giving us an idea of exactly how many runs crossed the plate on his watch). Change ). You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You ARE a comment machine…the ball park idea is good. ( Log Out /  And Brian Wilson—no, not of the Beach Boys—blew his only save in seven opportunities to that point on Cain’s last start. In fact, the Giants scored over 4.5 runs when Bonds got at least 3 plate appearances, but only managed about 3.2 runs per game when he didn’t. Matt Cain has been one of … If he strikes out 15 in his final start, he will pass Tim Lincecum and move to second place. Like day versus night games, home versus away didn’t seem to explain the difference in records. Giants' Matt ... Matt Kupferle — Yesterday's Perfect MLB DFS Lineups: Monday 9/21/20 The statistics bear this out. all good info–most interesting to me being the relieving staff’s work after cain versus after lowry. the concept of a fluke start seems like a reach though–like a chunk of info just meant to further equalize cain and lowry. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. There are many more statistics out there to judge pitchers on, and win-loss records have proven to be misleading in more cases that just Matt Cain’s in 2007. But in the first three innings, Cain’s ERA was 4.13 and Lowry’s 4.03, not enough of a difference to matter. When the 2013 season started, he was sitting pretty with a 3.27 career ERA, but time is a callous monster. THIS COULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER. Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. To argue that a pitcher has absolute control over his wins and losses, or that we should even use win-loss records from a single season as a barometer for his true ability, seems ridiculous. The Giants got some good things from the veteran right-hander. CLOSE X. Click "Allow" to receive push notifications and receive the most up-to-date information. Another potentially telling stat to look at is how many times each pitcher took a loss in a game where the Giant’s final tally either matched or exceeded their pitcher’s earned run total. Matt Cain came up in 2004. But why did Lowry receive better run support if the same guys are hitting behind him? Lowry’s splits were 11-7-2 and 3-1-2, respectively. At the same time, the only two Giants players ahead of Cain are both in the Hall of Fame, so that’s probably a good sign that this isn’t noise. Ducks History, Luck, and … Maarty Leunen! Weather info Powered by Dark Sky, © 2009-2020 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. J.J Hickson: Apologies for the Conspicuous Lack of Stripper References in Article. So errors are not the primary culprit of Cain’s woes. To put things in perspective, Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, from the same division, averaged between 6 1/3 and 6 2/3 innings per start (6.56), and finished the 2007 season with a record of 19-6. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Analysis and Other Interesting Sports Stories. Get the best deals on Upper Deck Matt Cain Original Baseball Cards when you shop the largest online selection at eBay.com. I wrote this just as the 2007 MLB season was coming to a close. Ran the numbers on this a few times, but it seems to check out. This does nothing to clear up the run support question! Matt Cain SP, San Francisco Giants SF. He deserves all of the cheers he’ll get on Saturday, and you should probably scream some into an empty box and mail them to him because he deserves even more. Why is it, then, that the Giants are able to come up with almost 1.5 more runs per game for Lowry than for Cain? Where does Matt Cain rank in San Francisco history? Though I believe he still has the worst career run support among active pitchers with at least 100 starts. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Using his teammate, Noah Lowry, for comparison, we can observe the unfair treatment of Cain. By registering, you indicate that you agree to the Terms Of Service. Lowry’s defense actually made more scoreboard-affecting errors than Cain’s. Pitching Extremes « Reading into the Numbers, Matt Cain and Wins or Lack Thereof Reading into the Numbers » Images Search, http://sportsstatsanalysis.com/2009/06/08/matt-cain/. All rights reserved. I’LL BE HONEST WITH YOU. Giants' Matt Cain plans to retire after 2017 season . Weather info Powered by Dark Sky, Giants' Matt Cain plans to retire after 2017 season, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 10/17/20, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 10/16/20, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 10/15/20. Each player pitched roughly half his starts at home, and each player’s runs-against averages were not significantly affected by that split. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. He couldn’t get the spare 115 starts (!) Here’s the scoop: Matt Cain’s 2007 weighted ball park factor was higher than Lowry’s (0.999 vs. 0.983) meaning that he pitched in ballparks where more runs are expected. This close-game-record comparison shows that Lowry got a little more help—maybe as a result of some timely hitting—than Cain did in the tight ballgames. © 2009-2019 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. We have stats. First of all, the obvious answer is that he received very little run support, about 3.1 runs per 9 innings. And furthermore, Cain pitched 9 more quality starts than Lowry, and has a higher percentage of quality starts: 68% vs. 50% for Lowry.

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